Substitutes While existing substitutes such as Frame Relay, Private Line, and ATM
are decelerating in a growth market, hitherto unknown technologies may conceivably
undermine Carrier Ethernet in the future. However, there have not been any notably
visible substitutes to Carrier Ethernet emerging. And given that incumbency, familiarity
and maturity are much valued factors in the Service Provider realm, Carrier
Ethernet, appears to be in a fairly safe position (though one can never rule out the
threats from a potent mix of some disruptive emerging technologies and a healthy dose
of competition/politics!).
As long as Carrier Ethernet??”like its LAN parent, continues to mature, adapt, and
self-optimize, it will likely neutralize any challenges.
One other substitute to potentially watch out for is cost-optimized MPLS; it may extend
from a fairly dominant position in the Service Provider Core and make in roads in
to the Access networks. Again, the economics, complexity, and familiarity may dictate
which way the Service Provider community may sway.
526 Chapter 16
The net conclusion is that while substitutes can slow the penetration of Carrier
Ethernet, it is unlikely that this will happen any time soon based on the data available
thus far; and with time, unless new requirements make Carrier Ethernet unadaptable,
it will in fact become more difficult to dislodge in any significant manner.
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