And although this will not likely yield a definitive answer
either10, it will help Service Providers and others better understand the relevant variables,
their respective influence and risk, and ultimately enable them to craft more effective
strategic plans with respect to offering, delivering and using Carrier Ethernet services.
Understanding the Future Demand for Carrier Ethernet
While Carrier Ethernet is very well positioned as the platform for delivering the nextgeneration
of applications, it is important to understand that this automatically does
not assure its growth, much less its dominance, especially in the future. There are
several independent variables11 that will determine the outcome. Figure 16.6 shows
a fairly comprehensive (though by no means exhaustive) set of eight variables12 that
will, either directly or indirectly, influence the demand for Carrier Ethernet services;
a straightforward diagrammatic technique derived from the field of Systems
Dynamics13[1] is used for this purpose. A brief explanation is in order to illustrate this
simple but powerful approach.
Arrows are employed to indicate the relationship/influence that a variable has on
other variables and/or directly on the demand itself.
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