6 billion over this five-year period. Over the next ten years, Ethernet will
inexorably take over the metro, though there will never be a wholesale change because of
the SONET/SDH installed base. Metro CAPEX may hold steady or grow slowly, but every
year Ethernet will account for a greater portion of metro CAPEX, driving a 32 percent
CAGR growth rate for 2005??“2009, led by Carrier Ethernet switches and routers with
43 percent of the market in 2005 (and 30 percent by 2009), Ethernet over SONET/SDH
at 27 percent in 2005 (declining to 12 percent in 2009), and Ethernet over copper (VDSL/
G.SHDSL) with 12 percent in 2005, growing to 39 percent in 2009. Figure 3.4 details
worldwide Ethernet revenue by technology.
Technologies and Trends
Service Providers use many technologies to deliver Ethernet services, mixing the old
tried-and-true with new, hot off the lab bench services. The lack of carrier grade metro
Ethernet products was an impediment to adoption of metro Ethernet in 2003, but
MPLS and other technologies have made metro Ethernet products resilient and able
to adapt to the rings that many large carriers strongly prefer (whether over SONET/
SDH or not).
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